What RFK Jr. and Make America Healthy Again Could Mean for Costco Members
With the new Trump Administration and RFK Jr. potentially at the helm of the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, I expect that we’ll see some changes that could impact some food at Costco. In fact I think we’ve already begun to see some changes in Costco ahead of anticipated changes. Although it’s too early to say if RFK Jr. will be confirmed, I think we’re already seeing changes at Costco that point to the expectation that he will be – below I’ll discuss how potential material changes could affect Costco shoppers, including anticipated mandates in ingredients and new farming changes and how they may impact a variety of products across Costco warehouses and their pricing.
The most significant change that would impact Costco Shoppers by far are potential farming rules or restrictions that could impact the beloved Costco rotisserie chickens, as well as the entire meat department. Namely because these changes could have material cost implications that could hit consumers. The MAHA initiative has a focus on regenerative farming which is considerably more expensive. It’s unrealistic for the entire United States to migrate to regenerative farming, so I don’t expect the MAHA initiatives will push for full-fledged migration to regenerative farming, but I would anticipate that some rules or regulations trending in that direction could be put into place, and could have cost implications to execute at the scale with which Costco would need in order to fulfill the volume it requires.
Given the rotisserie chickens are already a loss leader, meaning that Costco not only does not make a profit on this item, but loses money on these in order to bring in foot traffic, it’s difficult to say how much more [if any] of a loss Costco corporate is willing to take to hold the price. $5.99 Costco rotisserie chickens are beloved by members and so Costco has synthetically kept the price low on this item – but that is price manipulation – just in the consumer’s favor in this case. Given the incredibly low price of the Costco rotisserie chicken, and for how many years it’s stayed low, a nominal increase seems tolerable to me. But of course not ideal.
I expect a wide variety of food sold at Costco will be impacted with minor ingredient changes – most of these would fall under what I would classify as pantry and shelf stable food as well as some junk food items. Most of these are mass manufactured items and would involve relatively minor ingredients that could be swapped out for an alternative ingredient with no real material impact to the product at all. These are ingredients like corn syrup or hydrogenated oil. I would expect immaterial price increases as a result for many of these changes, if any at all. I don’t anticipate these changes to mass manufactured items (cereal, granola bars, crackers, cookies, etc.) to materially affect members’ grocery bills.
These small ingredient changes do, however, all add up from a health standpoint and significantly reduce the junky ingredients we take in daily and I am enthusiastic about these changes personally!
The final place where I do anticipate changes and we’ve begun to see them in advance of regulation changes is the Costco Bakery. If you’ve read my blog for a while now then you know that I often report on new Bakery items but don’t review them because I don’t buy many of them – primarily because the majority of bakery items are made with really junky ingredients. I DO appreciate that they’re super budget friendly (and I’ve purchased some of them, no judgment at all I just can’t buy all of them you know!!?). I also have one kiddo who tends to have stomach issues, and ingredients like corn syrup, hydrogenated oils, palm oils, etc. are triggers so I limit these a lot. These are also cheap subs and used in a lot of bakery items – no surprise there right. That’s how the stuff is so cheap.
In the last few weeks we saw new Costco Bakery Muffins rolls out – these are made with real butter instead of junky oil, and have an overall cleaner slate of ingredients. They’re also a fair bit more expensive. For me personally, I still think that they’re a deal compared to a bakery, and they have much cleaner ingredients – so that’s a win. I totally understand some people are hung up on the shock of the size and quantity reduction – it shakes out to a big price hike. I totally get it. The super bargain isn’t there anymore. They are, however, much much healthier for a regular breakfast option. I’m happy with them, but I know many are not.
Lastly, I do expect that the Make America Healthy Again Program may revamp SNAP benefits and what the program covers. I anticipate in the future they may exclude some food categories that are currently covered such as soda, high sugar processed foods and candy. Those changes are probably later down the line but I will expect the administration to put guardrails in place which limit how SNAP funds are spent. That’s not specific to Costco, but will affect Costco too.
I’m also hopeful that MAHA may take a step further and examine categories that may be included like rotisserie chickens – which are currently excluded as they’re considered “hot food.” While this may make sense with the intention of excluding take out or prepared food, in my opinion rotisserie chickens – especially from a grocery or a big box store – would potentially be a healthy, sensible, convenient and affordable inclusion that I hope will be considered! This is very much just a hope, but I can hope!
The Trump Administration and RFK Jr’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement may lead to changes in the food offerings at Costco. While it’s too soon to determine the full impact on Costco shoppers, potential mandates on ingredients and new farming practices could affect various products throughout their warehouses. I don’t anticipate any of these to affect the price of membership or services, and I’m optimistic the impact on rotisserie chickens will not be detrimental – but only time will tell. We do have record numbers of Americans with diabetes, heart diseases, cancer, liver disease and a host of other challenges and I think taking some steps to clean up our food from unnecessary highly processed, synthetic oils, dyes, and flavors is a net positive – most of them are already banned in Europe (for a good reason) and really all just cheap substitutes. They’re not needed except to save money. But the up front cost of spending more on food translates to spending less on healthcare long term (hopefully?). There’s no free lunch, so they say.
Unless you’re eating samples at Costco for lunch. LOL! jk.
Fortunately for Costco you don’t work for them cause otherwise they would lose some business from me.
ha. ok. well most people call me a shill and accuse me of being paid by them, so I’ll take it because I don’t get paid by them. lol. Not quite sure I know what you mean, but it’s a free country, so you’re free to disagree. cheers.